Pro Perspectives
Loading today's note...
Fetching the latest Pro Perspectives note...
Get Pro Perspectives delivered every morning — free.
The Mental Model
The Big Picture
Eight themes. Three scenarios. One framework — updated daily.
Where the Themes Converge
Walk-Forward Analysis
Key catalysts mapped to the themes Bryan is tracking — and where they intersect.
Now
Warsh nominated
Europe scrambling
AI capex 2x'd
Bitcoin −44%
Europe scrambling
AI capex 2x'd
Bitcoin −44%
May '26
Warsh takes chair
Fed backstop ends
ECB exposed
Fed backstop ends
ECB exposed
Jun '26
EU "One Europe"
deadline — unify
or fracture
deadline — unify
or fracture
Q3 '26
First Warsh FOMC
Accord 2.0 begins
IPO wave starts
Accord 2.0 begins
IPO wave starts
YE '26
AI diffusion
visible in GDP
1940s thesis tested
visible in GDP
1940s thesis tested
Scenario Analysis
Three Paths Forward
How today's themes resolve into probable outcomes by year-end.
Bull Case
The 1940s Replay
Warsh + Accord 2.0 restores confidence. Europe muddles through with a eurobond. AI diffusion lifts productivity. Rates fall structurally. Small caps explode.
↑ S&P 7,500+
↑ Small caps +40%
↓ 10-yr → 3.5%
↑ Gold $3,500+
Probability: 35%
Base Case
Structural Reform, Messy Transition
Warsh cuts rates, ends QE era. Europe stresses but ECB contains it. AI capex sustains but diffusion takes time. Volatility around May/June, then recovery.
↑ S&P 6,800–7,200
→ Small caps +15%
↓ 10-yr → 3.8%
↑ Gold $3,200
Probability: 45%
Risk Case
Europe Fractures, Contagion Spreads
EU fails to unify. Italy vetoes. Sovereign spreads blow out. ECB acts alone without Fed support. Dollar spikes. Forced selling cascades. Buying opportunity of the cycle.
↓ S&P −15% then V
↓ Euro parity
↑ Dollar spike
↑ Gold $4,000+
Probability: 20%
Quick Reference
If / Then Grid
What each catalyst means for the assets that matter.
| If… | 10-Yr Yield | S&P 500 | Gold | Dollar | Small Caps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warsh confirmed + Accord 2.0 | ↓ Lower | ↑ Higher | ↑ Higher | ↑ Stronger | ↑ Outperform |
| Europe fractures (Italy vetoes) | ↓ Flight to safety | ↓ Risk-off | ↑↑ Spike | ↑ Safe haven | ↓ Hit hardest |
| Europe unifies (eurobond) | → Neutral | ↑ Relief rally | → Holds | ↓ Euro recovers | ↑ Global risk-on |
| AI capex holds / accelerates | → Neutral | ↑ Tech leads | → Neutral | → Neutral | ↑ Diffusion trade |
| Bitcoin regime breaks (below trendline) | → Neutral | ↓ Forced selling | ↑ Flight | ↑ Cash demand | ↓ Liquidity hit |
| Fed returns to YCC / pins 10-yr | ↓↓ Pinned | ↑↑ Melt-up | ↑↑ $5k+ | ↓ Debasement | ↑↑ Boom |
The Portfolios
Where the Analysis Becomes Action
Pro Perspectives gives you the macro framework — the themes, the catalysts, the scenarios. The portfolios give you the positions. Bryan identifies the specific stocks that benefit from these themes, tells you when to buy, and tells you when to sell. Two portfolios, two strategies, both built on the same big-picture thinking you read in these daily notes.
BP
Billionaire's Portfolio
Follow billionaire activist investors into deeply undervalued stocks with a catalyst for change. You get the stock picks, the entry points, and the exit alerts.
47
Exited Campaigns
+39.8%
Avg Gain
on Exited Campaigns
Decade-long live track record. $297/quarter.
AI
AI-Innovation Portfolio
Own the physical infrastructure powering the AI revolution — chips, data centers, storage, energy. You get the positions, the thesis behind each pick, and the alerts.
28
Exited Campaigns
+39.2%
Avg Gain
on Exited Campaigns
79% win rate since June 2023. $297/quarter.