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Bryan Rich
Bryan Rich
Founder · Logic Fund Management

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The Running Record
Every note, flowing back through time
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The Mental Model
The Big Picture
Eight themes. Three scenarios. One framework.
As of July 7, 2026 · Read by 120,000 subscribers · Built from rolling months of daily Pro Perspectives notes
Where the Themes Converge
Walk-Forward Analysis
Key catalysts mapped to the themes Bryan is tracking — and where they intersect. As of July 7, 2026.
Now — Jul '26
Warsh Fed seated
Europe complied Jul 1
AI trade taking punches
S&P at records
6 themes active
Jul–Aug '26
Q2 earnings test
AI capex scrutiny
token budgets audited
AIScrutinyFed
Sep '26
Warsh easing path
deficit-to-3% agenda
IPO wave builds
FedGoldSmall Caps
Q4 '26
Spin & IPO wave
diffusion visible in
the real economy
AISmall Caps1940s
2027
China endgame
the AI race decides
the sequence
AIDollarGold
Scenario Analysis
Three Paths Forward
How today's themes resolve into probable outcomes by year-end. As of July 7, 2026.
Bull Case
The 1940s Replay
Warsh cuts into the diffusion phase. AI's benefits feed the broad economy — value stocks, small caps, wages. Nominal growth runs hot and deficits shrink relative to the economy. The 1940s playbook, replayed.
↑ S&P 8,200+
↑ Small caps +40%
↓ 10-yr → 3.5%
↑ Gold $5,000+
Probability: 40%
Base Case
Boom with Digestion
The AI trade digests its punches — capex scrutiny, token budgets, the memory wobble — while diffusion quietly broadens the bull market underneath. Warsh eases into it. Choppy at the top, strong beneath the surface.
↑ S&P 7,800–8,000
↑ Small caps +20%
↓ 10-yr → 3.8%
↑ Gold $4,500
Probability: 45%
Risk Case
Capex Air Pocket
The punches land. Enterprise AI spend disappoints, the concentration at the top unwinds, and Korea-style corrections spread to U.S. semis. Forced selling, dollar bid — and cash gets deployed at the prices of the cycle.
↓ S&P −15% then V
↓ Semis lead down
↑ Dollar bid
↑ Gold holds $4,000+
Probability: 15%
Quick Reference
If / Then Grid
What each catalyst means for the assets that matter. As of July 7, 2026.
If…10-Yr YieldS&P 500GoldDollarSmall Caps
Warsh cuts into the diffusion phase↓ Lower↑ Higher↑ Higher→ Neutral↑↑ Outperform
AI capex scrutiny deepens (token budgets bite)↓ Safety bid↓ Top-heavy→ Holds↑ Firmer→ Rotation bid
Europe's repricing accelerates (BTP spreads widen)↓ Flight to safety↓ Risk-off↑ Bid↑ Safe haven↓ Hit hardest
Diffusion shows up in GDP & productivity→ Neutral↑ Broadens→ Neutral→ Neutral↑↑ Diffusion trade
Memory/semis correction spreads (Korea signal)↓ Lower↓ Tech-led↑ Flight↑ Cash demand→ Relative winner
Fed pins the long end (yield curve control)↓↓ Pinned↑↑ Melt-up↑↑ $5k+↓ Debasement↑↑ Boom
The Portfolios
Where the Analysis Becomes Action
Pro Perspectives gives you the macro framework — the themes, the catalysts, the scenarios. The portfolios give you the positions. Bryan identifies the specific stocks that benefit from these themes, tells you when to buy, and tells you when to sell. Two portfolios, two strategies, both built on the same big-picture thinking you read in these daily notes.
BP
Billionaire's Portfolio
Follow billionaire activist investors into deeply undervalued stocks with a catalyst for change. You get the stock picks, the entry points, and the exit alerts.
51
Exited Campaigns
+61.8%
Avg Gain
on Exited Campaigns
Decade-long live track record. $297/quarter.
See full track record →
AI
AI-Innovation Portfolio
Own the physical infrastructure powering the AI revolution — chips, data centers, storage, energy. You get the positions, the thesis behind each pick, and the alerts.
33
Exited Campaigns
+43.9%
Avg Gain
on Exited Campaigns
82% win rate since June 2023. $297/quarter.
Learn more →